{"id":22667,"date":"2021-07-20T09:34:30","date_gmt":"2021-07-20T04:04:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/?p=22667"},"modified":"2021-07-23T11:35:25","modified_gmt":"2021-07-23T06:05:25","slug":"economy-poised-to-shrug-off-second-wave","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/hi\/economy-poised-to-shrug-off-second-wave\/","title":{"rendered":"Economy Poised to Shrug off Second Wave"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>As the second wave of the pandemic subsides and economic activity revives, those in charge are confident that the economy will shrug off its impact. The chief economic advisor has said so. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor has indicated as much. <strong>The merchants of gloom, who saw the health crisis as spelling disaster for the Indian economy, will be proved wrong, let us hope.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>At its peak, the number of cases in the second wave was four times that in the first wave. The first wave saw the Indian economy shrink by 7.3 per cent. As casualties were much greater in the second wave, some were quick to conclude that it would inflict an even greater toll on the economy. The second wave, however, promises to be far less severe in its economic impact.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Modern economies are decentralized, so aggregate output is hugely resilient in the face of a variety of physical shocks to supply. Manpower, both skilled and unskilled, is plentiful enough to cope with any loss of lives in war or peacetime.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The present lockdown is far more nuanced. Instead of a nationwide lockdown, we have localized lockdowns. Interstate travel and transport were on. Firms have adapted to lockdowns. Not just through work from home arrangements but also with respect to logistics and inventories.<\/p>\n<p>We do not have mindless prohibitions on the movement of individuals. So lockdown fatigue is less intense. There are signs of migrant labour, which fled at the first hint of lockdown, returning to the work places. The availability of vaccines allows a quicker movement towards normalcy. It also affords a measure of protection against a third wave. The boost to health infrastructure means we are better prepared for a third wave.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Two broad inferences are possible. First, the hit to economic activity will be <\/strong><strong>mostly confined to the first quarter. Secondly, a third wave, if it materializes, is unlikely to be hugely disruptive for the economy.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>True, the pandemic shock will cause NPAs to rise again. The data on moratorium on loan payments and restructuring suggests that the problems are mainly in retail assets and small enterprises, not in large corporate accounts. Bankers believe the rise in NPAs will be manageable.<\/p>\n<p>The problem that banks face now is not so much an increase in NPAs as tepid loan growth. 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\u0932\u0947\u0915\u093f\u0928 \u090b\u0923 \u0906\u0935\u0902\u091f\u0928 \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0941\u0938\u094d\u0924 \u0930\u092b\u094d\u0924\u093e\u0930 \u0909\u0928\u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u091a\u093f\u0902\u0924\u093e \u0915\u093e \u0935\u093f\u0937\u092f \u0939\u0948\u0964 \u0907\u0938\u0915\u0940 \u090f\u0915 \u0935\u091c\u0939 \u092f\u0939 \u092d\u0940 \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u0928\u093f\u091c\u0940 \u0928\u093f\u0935\u0947\u0936 \u091c\u094b\u0930 \u0928\u0939\u0940\u0902 \u092a\u0915\u095c \u092a\u093e \u0930\u0939\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-17660\" src=\"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Trikalp-Laminates.png\" alt=\"Trikalp Laminates\" width=\"68\" height=\"65\" srcset=\"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Trikalp-Laminates.png 512w, https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Trikalp-Laminates-300x286.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 68px) 100vw, 68px\" \/>\u00a0 \u00a0 <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-17618\" src=\"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Century-Plywood.png\" alt=\"Century Plywood\" width=\"142\" height=\"63\" srcset=\"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Century-Plywood.png 539w, https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Century-Plywood-300x133.png 300w, https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Century-Plywood-18x8.png 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 142px) 100vw, 142px\" \/> \u00a0<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-17687\" src=\"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Empire-Plywood.png\" alt=\"Empire Plywood\" width=\"164\" height=\"61\" srcset=\"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Empire-Plywood.png 856w, https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Empire-Plywood-300x112.png 300w, https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Empire-Plywood-768x286.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 164px) 100vw, 164px\" \/><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"es6GqtamR4\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/hi\/directory\/\">Directory<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Directory&#8221; &#8212; PLY INSIGHT\" src=\"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/directory\/embed\/#?secret=jElKvd6ZhB#?secret=es6GqtamR4\" data-secret=\"es6GqtamR4\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the second wave of the pandemic subsides and economic activity revives, those in charge are confident that the economy will shrug off its impact. The chief economic advisor has said so. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor has indicated as much. The merchants of gloom, who saw the health crisis as spelling disaster [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22668,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1318],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22667","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-july-articles-2021"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Economy Poised to Shrug off Second Wave - PLY INSIGHT<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/hi\/economy-poised-to-shrug-off-second-wave\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hi_IN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economy Poised to Shrug off Second Wave - PLY INSIGHT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As the second wave of the pandemic subsides and economic activity revives, those in charge are confident that the economy will shrug off its impact. 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