{"id":28791,"date":"2022-07-07T13:26:27","date_gmt":"2022-07-07T07:56:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/?p=28791"},"modified":"2022-07-30T15:21:31","modified_gmt":"2022-07-30T09:51:31","slug":"low-interest-rate-incentive-or-subsidy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/hi\/low-interest-rate-incentive-or-subsidy\/","title":{"rendered":"Low Interest Rate: Incentive or Subsidy"},"content":{"rendered":"

Low interest rates are a big boon for borrowers. Howe ever, they are a serious problem for savers. Low interest rates are supposed to act as an incentive for real investment and, relatedly, the revival of the economy. However, real investment is often not very responsive to interest rate cuts when we have an economic slowdown. So some of the benefit due to a low interest rate policy is note an incentive; it is a subsidy.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Consider, for example, the home buyers. A style fact is that home prices have been somewhat sluggish over last six to eight years steadily rising, except for some change due to covid-19. So, affordability has definitely been increasing. Home buying would have picked up substantially anyway. Under this circumstance, the low interest rate policy was not needed as an incentive beyond a point, if at all. Accordingly, some of benefit due to the low interest policy is a subsidy for home buyers.<\/p>\n

Also, given the low interest rate, the stock market is booming, though there are other reasons as well. This is not a case of real investment; it is financial investment. The element of subsidy in the low interest rate here is substantial, If not complete. Also, the government is a beneficiary of the low interest rate policy as it is a big borrower. It may be awkward to say that the government receives a subsidy. However, this does not change the economics of it all.<\/p>\n

Just how big is the subsidy in all this? AS someone had observed, ‘it is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong\u201d. So, let us provide an estimate here, even if it is rough.<\/p>\n

Over the last three years or so, the Reserve bank of India (RBI) has lowered the repo rate by about 2.25 percentage points. Let us say that the interest rate fell by only 0.5 percentage points for the entire stock of debt. Even this is significant. But the story does not end here.<\/p>\n

Over the last three years, the average rate of inflation has been about 5.4 per cent: it was previously at about 4 per cent. So, we have about 1.4 percentage points rise in the average inflation rate over the last three years or so. Given the 0.5 percentage point reduction in the nominal interest rate, which we considered above, and the1.4 percentage point rise in the inflation rate, we get a 1.9 percentage point reduction in the real interest rate.<\/p>\n

For lack of better method\/assumption, let us assume that half of the 1.9 percentage point reduction in the real interest rate is an incentive and the remaining half is a subsidy. We then get a 0.95 percentage point reduction in the real interest rate, which is a subsidy.<\/p>\n

The subsidy here is not paid by (affluent) tax payers. Its burden is on the less well off and the less well informed people who get much lower interest income.<\/p>\n

This is a case of an undesirable redistribution.<\/p>\n

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\"\" \u00a0\u00a0 \"Surfactant<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Low interest rates are a big boon for borrowers. Howe ever, they are a serious problem for savers. Low interest rates are supposed to act as an incentive for real investment and, relatedly, the revival of the economy. However, real investment is often not very responsive to interest rate cuts when we have an economic […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28793,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2961],"tags":[2997,989,667,301,2996,1664,1066,2995,442,443,1289,99,2998,739,1270,2563,525],"class_list":["post-28791","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-july-articles-2022","tag-finaicial","tag-finance","tag-financial-year","tag-government","tag-incentive","tag-inflation","tag-interest","tag-interest-rate","tag-invest","tag-investment","tag-money","tag-rbi","tag-repo-rate","tag-reserve-bank-of-india","tag-share-market","tag-subsidies","tag-subsidy"],"yoast_head":"\nLow Interest Rate: Incentive or Subsidy - PLY INSIGHT<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Low interest rates are a big boon for borrowers. 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