{"id":28814,"date":"2022-07-07T16:31:39","date_gmt":"2022-07-07T11:01:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/?p=28814"},"modified":"2022-07-08T13:56:44","modified_gmt":"2022-07-08T08:26:44","slug":"reality-check-on-tax-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/hi\/reality-check-on-tax-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"Reality check on tax growth"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Narendra Modi government’s gross tax collections in the just-concluded financial year of 2021-22 have recorded a 34 per cent jump to a record high of Rs. 27 trillion. An annual increase of this order has not been seen in at least the last four decades. The size of the Indian economy, or the gross domestic product (GDP) grew by about 19 per cent in nominal terms in 2021-22. So, the extent of the rise in the Centre’s gross tax collections is significant and has understandably triggered celebration within and outside the government. But it is also important to evaluate this performance in a larger context to make better sense of the true nature of the improvement in tax collections.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Perhaps the period under Manmohan Singh is strictly not comparable to the one under Narendra Modi. Under the Singh regime, the Indian economy faced the adverse impact of the US financial crisis, the \u201ctaper tantrum\u201d with the US withdrawing liquidity and the farm crisis. But the Modi government ‘s eight years have suffered from arguable bigger shocks the self-inflicted wound of demonetization in 2016, the launch of the goods and services tax or GST in 2017 and the Covid pandemic. This may explain why the CAGR of tax collections during the Modi regime so far declined to about 10 per cent, compared to that in the 10 years of the Singh government. But there is no denying that over a longer period there has been a deceleration in the annual growth in tax collections during the Modi regime.<\/p>\n

There is another way of contextualizing the performance of tax collections in the last eight years. In as many as three years under the Modi regime, gross tax collections grew in single digits and in one year during 2019-20, which was before the onset of Covid- gross tax collections fell by about 3 per cent. The annual growth rate of 34 per cent in 2021-22 came after three successive years of low growth or decline. Barring last year’s performance, tax collections growth could not cross the 20-per cent mark in any of the years during the Modi regime.<\/p>\n

The declining share of direct taxes in the centre’s gross tax collections has been a cause for concern in recent years. The problem was more acute in the first three years of the Manmohan Singh regime, when the share of direct taxes in gross tax collections ranged between 44 per cent and 49 per cent. In the following seven years, much to the Singh government’s credit, this share was pulled up to 52-56 per cent and in one year, 2009-10, the share was as high as 60 per cent.<\/p>\n

This trend changed for the worse in the first few years of the Modi government. There was a steady decline in the share of direct taxes in gross tax collections from 56 per cent in 2014-15 to 49 per cent in 2016-17, the year of demonetization. There has been some recovery since then, but the post-Covid year of 2020-21 saw that share drop again to 46 per cent. Direct taxes in 2021-22 grew significantly to command a share of 52 per cent in gross tax collections. Maintaining a higher share of direct taxes would depend on how well the government widens its direct taxes base and whether the reforms in GST can be expedited.<\/p>\n

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The Narendra Modi government’s gross tax collections in the just-concluded financial year of 2021-22 have recorded a 34 per cent jump to a record high of Rs. 27 trillion. An annual increase of this order has not been seen in at least the last four decades. The size of the Indian economy, or the gross […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28815,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2961],"tags":[1025,3014,667,322,1133,3015,250,1124,3013,397,295,3016],"class_list":["post-28814","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-july-articles-2022","tag-business","tag-direct-taxes","tag-financial-year","tag-gdp","tag-goods-and-service-tax","tag-gross-tax","tag-gst","tag-indian-economy","tag-modi-government","tag-narendra-modi","tag-tax","tag-tax-collections"],"yoast_head":"\nReality check on tax growth - PLY INSIGHT<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Narendra Modi government's gross tax collections in the just-concluded financial year of 2021-22 have recorded a 34 per cent jump to a\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/hi\/reality-check-on-tax-growth\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hi_IN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Reality check on tax growth - 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