{"id":29441,"date":"2022-08-12T13:12:13","date_gmt":"2022-08-12T07:42:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/?p=29441"},"modified":"2022-08-12T13:12:13","modified_gmt":"2022-08-12T07:42:13","slug":"indian-economy-better-placed-than-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/hi\/indian-economy-better-placed-than-us\/","title":{"rendered":"Indian economy better placed than US"},"content":{"rendered":"

Inflation at the moment may be above the upper limit of the inflation targeting framework but there is room for optimism about growth prospects for the Indian economy in 2022-23.<\/p>\n

The inflation rate needs to fall. But analysts seem to be having second thoughts about the degree of monetary tightening that needs to happen. That is the cause for optimism about growth.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Deputy Governor Dr. Michael Patra made three important points. First, he indicated that we might expect inflation to fall back into the tolerance band of 2-6 per cent by the fourth quarter of 2022-23, Second, Dr Patra seemed hopeful that \u201cmonetary policy actions in India will be more moderate than elsewhere in the world\u201d.<\/p>\n

Third, Dr. Patra indicated that inflation may exceed 6 per cent for three successive quarters, which would be a breach of the MPC’s mandate. However, if India’s gross domestic product (GDP) can grow at 6-7 per cent in this year and the next. \u201cthe RBI will have fulfilled its mandate of prioritising price stability while being mindful of growth.\u201d read together, the second and third points could be interpreted to mean that interest rate hikes here after would not be so drastic as to cause GDP growth to fall below 6 per cent. This approach may result in a breach in the accountability mandate of the MPC. So be it, Dr Patra seemed to suggest.<\/p>\n

These are \u201cextraordinary times\u201d. Nobody can disagree. Having just emerged from successive waves of the pandemic, the world economy is facing new supply constraints. India’s economy needs to be protected from supply constraints.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The spoiler could be the actions of the US Federal Reserve. The fed has of late taken a \u201cwe will do whatever it takes\u201d approach to fighting inflation. Market analyst feel the Fed could hike interest rates by a further 120-150 basis points in the months ahead. If the RBI were to match that, the repo rate could rise to as much as 6.4 per cent. That would render a soft landing difficult for the Indian economy.<\/p>\n

The best outcome would be that the Fed does not hike the policy rate as much as feared. The other possibility is that the RBI does not have to match the Fed’s rate hikes. The price to be paid is a further flight of portfolio funds and a depreciation in the rupee. We can live with such a depreciation. Despite the fall in the exchange rate of the rupee with respect to the dollar, the 40- currency real effective exchange of the rupee has remained virtually unchanged in May 2022 compared to May 2021.<\/strong><\/p>\n

When it comes to a soft landing, India is better placed than the US and many other European economies. Even at May’s inflation rate of 7 per cent, inflation in India is 2.5 percentage points above the average for the previous five years. In the US, the difference is about 5.5 percentage points. Monetary tightening required is greater in the US.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

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Inflation at the moment may be above the upper limit of the inflation targeting framework but there is room for optimism about growth prospects for the Indian economy in 2022-23. The inflation rate needs to fall. But analysts seem to be having second thoughts about the degree of monetary tightening that needs to happen. That […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":26409,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3179],"tags":[1089,1170,3254,603,322,501,1124,3255,739,3253,1669],"class_list":["post-29441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-august-news-2022","tag-banking","tag-banks","tag-currencey","tag-economy","tag-gdp","tag-gross-domestic-product","tag-indian-economy","tag-monetary","tag-reserve-bank-of-india","tag-us-economy","tag-us-federal-reserve"],"yoast_head":"\nIndian economy better placed than US - PLY INSIGHT<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/hi\/indian-economy-better-placed-than-us\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hi_IN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Indian economy better placed than US - PLY INSIGHT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Inflation at the moment may be above the upper limit of the inflation targeting framework but there is room for optimism about growth prospects for the Indian economy in 2022-23. 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