{"id":31313,"date":"2022-10-11T16:25:12","date_gmt":"2022-10-11T10:55:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/?p=31313"},"modified":"2022-10-11T16:26:16","modified_gmt":"2022-10-11T10:56:16","slug":"slow-down-in-global-demand-weaker-sentiment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/hi\/slow-down-in-global-demand-weaker-sentiment\/","title":{"rendered":"Slow Down in Global Demand, weaker sentiment"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This is supposed to be the busiest season for containerships ferrying goods from Asia to the US, as retailers stock up, first for the \u201cback-to-school\u201d shopping, and then for the upcoming holiday season.<\/p>\n<p>However, freights rates have been falling, and on many routes, they have halved from their 52- week highs. Given that shipping capacity has not yet expanded meaningfully (that should start over the next year), this implies very weak freight demand.<\/p>\n<p>Easing of global Supply-chain pressures is a positive development, but for a few quarters, it could intensify the order weakness for Asian exporters by prompting de-stocking.<\/p>\n<p>The \u201cinter-arrival period\u201d is the most important variable for firms calculating how much inventory to keep. For example, if the truck\/ship comes once a week, there should be enough inventory to meet at least a week of sales. As shipping lead doubled the inventory they hold, which becomes unnecessary once lead time normalise.<\/p>\n<p>Recall that the global goods demand is already well below trend due to weakness in China and Europe. Europe&#8217;s trade balance in the June quarter was nearly 5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) worse than the pre-Covid average, and goods imports are likely to weaken meaningfully going forward, due to either a weak euro, or higher interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>China&#8217;s retail sales are now two-thirds as large as that of the US (even though much lower on a per capita basis), and even before Coved-driven lockdowns disrupted sales and weakened consumer sentiment, growth had been slowing visibly.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts are cutting growth forecasts for various end-markets. A downward lash of the supply-chain bullwhip is likely to trigger the next leg of the correction-weaker prices. Lower factory utilization forces firms to jostle for market share with price documents.<\/p>\n<p>Supply disruptions, like in Europe due to the energy crunch and in China due to lockdowns (though this has had limited impact thus far), may be too small to offset the fall in apparent demand.<\/p>\n<p>Can these price declines allow a quick reversal of the direction of monetary policy from aggressive tightening to some form of easing? For a few quarters at least, that appears unlikely.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u0935\u0948\u0936\u094d\u0935\u093f\u0915 \u092e\u093e\u0902\u0917 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0927\u0940\u092e\u093e\u092a\u0928 \u0906\u0917\u0947 \u092e\u0941\u0936\u094d\u0915\u093f\u0932 \u0939\u093e\u0932\u093e\u0924<\/strong><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>\u092f\u0939 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u092f\u0903 \u090f\u0936\u093f\u092f\u093e \u0938\u0947 \u0935\u0938\u094d\u0924\u0941\u0913\u0902 \u0915\u094b \u0905\u092e\u0947\u0930\u093f\u0915\u093e \u092d\u0947\u091c\u0947 \u091c\u093e\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u093e \u0938\u092c\u0938\u0947 \u0935\u094d\u092f\u0938\u094d\u0924 \u092e\u094c\u0938\u092e \u0939\u0948\u0964 \u092f\u0939\u0940 \u0935\u0939 \u0938\u092e\u092f \u0939\u0948 \u091c\u092c \u0915\u0902\u091f\u0947\u0928\u0930\u0936\u093f\u092a \u092e\u093e\u0932 \u0932\u0947\u0915\u0930 \u0906\u0935\u093e\u091c\u093e\u0939\u0940 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902 \u0914\u0930 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\u0924\u093f\u092e\u093e\u0939\u093f\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u0924\u0915 \u0910\u0938\u093e \u0939\u094b\u0924\u093e \u0928\u0939\u0940\u0902 \u0926\u093f\u0916\u0924\u093e\u0964<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is supposed to be the busiest season for containerships ferrying goods from Asia to the US, as retailers stock up, first for the \u201cback-to-school\u201d shopping, and then for the upcoming holiday season. However, freights rates have been falling, and on many routes, they have halved from their 52- week highs. Given that shipping capacity [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":31314,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3452],"tags":[3466,3467],"class_list":["post-31313","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-october-news-22","tag-slow-down-in-global-demand","tag-weaker-sentiment"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Slow Down in Global Demand, weaker sentiment - PLY INSIGHT<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/hi\/slow-down-in-global-demand-weaker-sentiment\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hi_IN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Slow Down in Global Demand, weaker sentiment - PLY INSIGHT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This is supposed to be the busiest season for containerships ferrying goods from Asia to the US, as retailers stock up, first for the \u201cback-to-school\u201d shopping, and then for the upcoming holiday season. However, freights rates have been falling, and on many routes, they have halved from their 52- week highs. 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