{"id":34178,"date":"2022-12-12T12:51:01","date_gmt":"2022-12-12T07:21:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/?p=34178"},"modified":"2022-12-13T11:07:37","modified_gmt":"2022-12-13T05:37:37","slug":"editorial-december-22","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/plyinsight.com\/hi\/editorial-december-22\/","title":{"rendered":"Editorial December 22"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\"><em><strong>So if we talk about the unexpected, then a recession may not happen, and it will happen only when inflation starts declining rapidly.<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Economists don&#8217;t think too far ahead. They keep their eyes on small developments. In this process they miss the whole picture. That is why they have not been able to predict a single US recession since 1970.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">A group of economists is not only predicting a recession in the US next year, but is 60 percent sure it will happen. Now that inflation has hit a four-decade high and central banks are aggressively raising rates, a recession seems inevitable, yet what is inevitable never happens, but unexpected happens.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">So if we talk about the unexpected, then a recession may not happen, and it will happen only when inflation starts declining rapidly. Due to this, the Federal Reserve will not tighten further. Emerging China&#8217;s economy is also turbulent and is gradually exporting inflation to the whole world.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">But right now the US economy seems far from the edge of recession. Weak growth in the first half of this year was exacerbated by the third quarter, when US GDP grew at 2.6% annually. Disposable incomes are keeping pace with inflation, showing a healthy uptick in consumer-buying.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Obviously, in the post-pandemic situation, now the expenditure on travel and tourism has also increased more than before. The private sector is also investing money. Corporate capital expenditure is growing at a rapid pace. The unemployment rate remains at a low of 3.7%. None of this is usually seen in the precursors of a recession.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Labor market turmoil is bound to increase wage inflation, but some analysts are still hopeful that wage gains will also stop now while job openings are shrinking. Also the doors of unexpected happiness are always open. Warm winters or peace in Ukraine will result in a drop in energy bills, which will reduce inflation and boost economic growth.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Especially also because in the world of market and economy the unexpected is permanent. This means that the recession may not be as inevitable as it is being projected.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u0938\u0941\u0930\u0947\u0936 \u092c\u093e\u0939\u0947\u0924\u0940<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"color: #000000;\">9050800888<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><span style=\"color: #800000;\"><strong>\u0924\u094b \u0905\u0917\u0930 \u0905\u0928\u092a\u0947\u0915\u094d\u0937\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0940 \u092c\u093e\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0947\u0902 \u0924\u094b \u0939\u094b \u0938\u0915\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u092e\u0902\u0926\u0940 \u0928\u0939\u0940 \u0906\u090f, \u0914\u0930 \u092f\u0939 \u0924\u092d\u0940 \u0939\u094b\u0917\u093e \u091c\u092c \u092e\u0941\u0926\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0938\u094d\u092b\u0940\u0924\u093f \u0924\u0947\u091c\u0940 \u0938\u0947 \u0918\u091f\u0928\u0947 \u0932\u0917\u0947\u0917\u0940\u0964<\/strong><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: 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\u0905\u0935\u0936\u094d\u092f\u092e\u094d\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0940 \u0928\u0939\u0940\u0902, \u091c\u093f\u0924\u0928\u093e \u0915\u093f \u092c\u0924\u093e\u0908 \u091c\u093e \u0930\u0939\u0940 \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u0938\u0941\u0930\u0947\u0936 \u092c\u093e\u0939\u0947\u0924\u0940<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"color: #000000;\">9050800888<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>So if we talk about the unexpected, then a recession may not happen, and it will happen only when inflation starts declining rapidly. Economists don&#8217;t think too far ahead. They keep their eyes on small developments. In this process they miss the whole picture. 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