Damage to the global economy is going to be significant

We must accept that the world has now become more conflict-ridden than before. In this situation, the biggest requirement is, a change in the way we think.

The wars related to Ukraine and Iran also provide another important lesson: being strong alone is not enough, especially when the opposing side is capable of extending the impact of war to civilian and industrial infrastructure.

Russia has systematically destroyed Ukraine’s power systems and other key infrastructure, while Israel has carried out similar attacks in Gaza. Now Iran is also targeting not only the military bases of the United States and Israel, but also civilian locations in several countries, such as Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Oman, and even Saudi Arabia and Cyprus.

If industrial and civilian infrastructure is targeted—for example, if electricity supply, refineries, or water supply systems are disrupted, it means that, The world is no longer safe, and we must be fully prepared to face any challenge.

The war that has broken out in West Asia is now beginning to affect factories in India as well. From large manufacturing companies to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), many businesses are struggling significantly in terms of production. Everyone facing a decline in production due to shortages of fuel and delays in raw material cargo. Along with transportation costs, the cost of producing various chemicals is also rising rapidly, in panel industry.

Sources in the industry say that many units have reduced production by up to 30-50 percent, compared to the period before the war.

Considering the uncertainty surrounding inflation, there are concerns that consumer purchasing may be affected in the market. As people focus primarily on essential goods, demand for panel products may remain weak, which could force manufacturers to restrict price increases.

Who knows how long the war will last? And how will it end?

How the war ends is just as important as when it ends.

Based on current indications, the war is unlikely to conclude on U.S. terms. The Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to reopen quickly, and restoring insurance for ships passing through it will take time.

Restarting normal production in closed refineries will also be a gradual process. If the Iranian government remains in power, Gulf countries that have been trying to diversify their economies away from oil, into tourism and finance will also be affected.

In short, the end of the conflict will not mean a quick return to normalcy; in some cases, normal conditions may never fully return.

Under any scenario, the damage to the global economy will be significant, which will be challenging to compensate.

Suresh Bahety | 9050800888

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