How Many Opportunities for India amid the trade war

Many policymakers and experts are believing that the trade war between the US and China is a golden opportunity for India. Will India be able to capture China’s huge share in the export market if the supply chain deteriorates and geopolitical tensions deepen? On the surface, it seems so. But there is a bitter reality behind this hope.

China’s export system is quite huge. It directly exported goods worth $439 billion to the US in 2024. If we add the export goods through Vietnam, Cambodia and Mexico to this figure, the figure will increase a lot.

It is not easy to match this huge figure. India and other countries do not have enough industrial strength, logistics capacity or policy transparency to become an alternative to Chinese exports.

But the issue is whether Indian goods are capable of entering it or not.

India’s manufacturing sector is scattered, lagging behind in the use of technology and is not fully prepared to fill the space vacated by China. The quality of goods and products is the biggest obstacle. Indian products often fail on international standards and production also does not increase.

There are challenges for exporters too. Indian exporters have to go through long paperwork processes. Due to logistics, the movement of goods becomes slow and expensive, due to which exporters struggle to meet the conditions related to supply. Due to poor road and rail connectivity, it becomes difficult for goods from distant states to reach the port. Which is three times the time taken in other countries.

India wants to move ahead in exports but is becoming dependent on imports, especially Chinese ones.

It takes long-term patience and hard work to compete in the global economy. Therefore, there is a need to invest in science and technical education, improve vocational education, reduce conditions for ease of doing business, reduce indirect taxes, promote competition, support emerging units in the export sector and create a favourable environment for continuous foreign direct investment (FDI) with meaningful technology transfer.

Suresh Bahety

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