The Prospects of Peace in West Asia Are Fading

Despite efforts by Pakistan, Egypt, Türkiye, and Saudi Arabia to broker a settlement, the rigid stance of both sides—United States–Israel on one hand and Iran on the other—is likely to impose a significant economic burden on the global economy. Asian countries, already heavily dependent on fossil fuels from West Asia, are struggling to manage inflationary pressures and fuel shortages.

The Strait of Hormuz accounts for nearly a quarter of global maritime oil and gas trade and serves as a crucial route for West Asian fossil fuel producers, as 80–90% of its crude oil and natural gas imports pass through this route. Saudi Arabia attempted to mitigate the impact of potential blockades by increasing oil flow through its East-West land pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, thereby easing pressure on crude oil prices. However, this route is now also under threat.

The Suez Canal and the Red Sea are also targeted now, which handle about one-third of the world’s container traffic, and the global economy has already witnessed disruptions caused by Houthi activities in 2023 and 2024. Ships were forced to take longer routes around the western coast of Africa and the Cape of Good Hope, significantly increasing shipping costs and insurance premiums. This, in turn, intensified global inflationary pressures and further disrupted supply chains.

It is becoming increasingly evident that the United States and Israel may have seriously underestimated Iran’s responses and capabilities. Even the assassination of Iran’s political and security leadership has not compelled it to surrender.

With no clear path for a face-saving exit for the United States and Israel, the prospects for lasting peace in West Asia are steadily diminishing.

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